What’s ahead for Justin Turner’s 2024 option situation?
Last January, Boston added a veteran right-handed presence to the lineup in the form of 38-year-old Justin Turner. It took some time for the contract details to solidify publicly, but what was agreed upon was roughly the following:
If this seems confusing, here’s a better way to describe it: Turner signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox for $8.3MM that includes a player option for 2024 worth $13.4MM that comes with a $6.7MM buyout.
In this contract, Turner got good money as an aging veteran and solid 2024 insurance regardless of the outcome for a total of $15MM in guaranteed money. He was a free agent after the Dodgers had paid him a $2MM buyout on a $16MM team option. So all-in-all, Turner won the situation with a grand total of $18MM in guaranteed money to play baseball for one year with the Red Sox in 2023 (the initial $15MM guarantee from Boston + $1MM in earned incentives during the 2023 season + the $2MM buyout from LA).
Where it got complicated was the nature of the considerable buyout and the “player option” side of things. Often, contracts are reported as player options but can also be player opt-outs. This can change the average annual value (AAV) calculation similarly to how JD Martinez’s contract was structured in previous years. The contract is treated as two guaranteed years instead of one. This is rarely reported directly, but the AAV is often confirmed publicly after the fact. Either way, the calculation on the AAV for Turner for the Red Sox in 2023 was not $15MM as usually tabulated for one year, but rather $10.85MM ($8.3MM 2023 value + $13.4MM 2024 value divided by two guaranteed seasons).
When this happens, it can create some “leftover” money to reconsider in out years. But before I get to that, let’s lay out Turner’s upcoming decision. Within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, he will need to opt into the 2024 season with Boston which would lock in a $13.4MM salary for the 2024 season. Or, he can opt out of the 2024 year and net the $6.7MM buyout. Effectively, all Turner would need to do to improve his contract standing is to opt out, take the buyout money and then find at minimum a one-year deal with more than $6.7MM, or any multi-year deal with Boston or another club. For this reason, a healthy Turner should be expected to opt-out.
This brings us to the 2024 payroll number for Turner. Using the above math, there are two outcomes and CBT hits possible in early November:
- Turner stays with the Red Sox = $10.85MM CBT AAV
- Turner takes the buyout money and becomes a free agent = $4.15MM CBT AAV (difference in guaranteed money left from 2023 deal + buyout)
For the purposes of projecting the 2024 payroll for CBT purposes, I’ve put a $4.15MM hold on Turner’s line at the bottom of the tracker, as this is the likely outcome. The two sides could rip up the current deal and agree to some new contract of one or multiple years, but buyout money is free and I’d expect to see that happen first before any contract conversations commence, if any.
